Mixed picture for global meat production
2021 will offer a mixed picture for meat production around the globe, says the most recent USDA forecast. According to the report, pork production will increase by 2% this year, to reach 103.8 million tonnes. The main reason is that the Chinese pig sector is recovering from ASF. High prices continue to incentivize producers to expand their number of animals, leading to China's production forecast being revised up 5%.
However, despite this review, Chinese production is expected to remain below pre-ASF levels as rising costs and animal management problems create problems. The rise in production in China more than compensates for the sharp decline in production in the Philippines, where ASF continues to spread in key regions. World pork exports for 2021 are revised up by almost 3%, to 11.1 million tonnes. Imports from China will be lower but are expected to remain elevated, compared to pre-ASF figures. For the US pork producers, one disappointment will be the Mexican market, where weak currency and economy lead to lower expectations.
World beef production will decline to around 61.2 million tonnes, mainly due to reductions in China and the United States. China is revised down by 3% (6.7 million tonnes less than last year). World beef exports in 2021 will remain unchanged at 10.8 million tonnes. Demand from Asia remains strong and the supply forecast for most major exporters has not changed, said the report.
Global chicken meat production for 2021 is revised down 1%, to 101.8 million tonnes, due to sharp declines in the EU and China. The EU is fighting the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza in several Member States, lower domestic demand and higher grain prices. China's demand for chicken meat continues to grow, but at a slower rate, as the pig herd recovers and with it the production of pork. As a result, exports from the EU, Thailand and Brazil will decline, while those of the United States will rise.
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