Spain: Bluetongue reduces lamb production by 30 percent and raises prices
Adding to this decline is an upward trend in prices, with a 10.6% increase in prices over the last year, according to industry data. Factors such as farm closures, the lack of generational change, and the increase in live lamb exports are worsening the situation, creating a "perfect storm" in the supply of this meat, a traditional staple on Christmas tables.
Bluetongue is a disease not transmissible to humans but seriously affects sheep and is transmitted by mosquitoes. Since the beginning of this year, Spain has opted for a voluntary vaccination model, eliminating the mandatory vaccination requirement for animals moving between regions, which has facilitated the spread of the virus.
Although mortality among fattening lambs is low, it is affecting breeding ewes, causing a higher number of abortions and a decrease in the number of pregnant ewes, according to Felipe Molina, general secretary of the Spanish Association of Merino Breeders.
The upcoming fall lambing campaign, crucial for the production of lambs that will arrive at homes at Christmas, could be reduced by up to 30% compared to the same period last year, according to industry estimates.
Christmas in the spotlight
"This farrowing pen is key to meeting Christmas demand", confirms Raúl Muñiz, president of the interprofessional sheep and goat meat association, Interovic. Although "exorbitant" price increases are not expected, a progressive increase is anticipated toward the end of the year due to the reduced available supply.
More exports, less meat in the domestic market
The growing demand for Spanish lamb in Arab countries is reducing availability in the domestic market. In the first half of 2025 alone, live lamb exports increased by 20% compared to the same period in 2021.
At the same time, the number of lambs slaughtered in Spanish slaughterhouses has fallen by 7.39%, reflecting the sector's preference for foreign markets such as Algeria and Morocco, where this product is paid more.
"In these countries, consumption of quality lamb is growing, while here it's declining", laments Muñiz. A view shared by Molina, who emphasizes that exports to countries with Muslim populations now represent "a very significant portion" of the total volume.
The threat of generational change
Added to all this is the structural problem facing the Spanish countryside: the lack of generational renewal. Since 2020, the sheep population has fallen by two million heads, and the number of farms has decreased by 4%.
"There are no young people who want to stay in rural areas," Muñiz points out. "This is hard work, where the animals eat every day, including holidays."
A cocktail that drives up prices
In short, lower domestic production, weakened animal health, and a market that looks abroad are shaping a scenario in which the price of lamb in Spain will continue to rise, according to all industry forecasts. This trend will directly affect consumers during one of the key times of the year for this product: Christmas.
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