8% drop in global pork production
Rabobank has revised its estimation on the global pork production from a 5% drop to 8% for this year. The largest decline is expected in China (17%), followed by the Philippines (9%) and Vietnam (8%). All three countries are hit by African swine fever (ASF). However, there is an impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on other markets and some of the world's largest producers are going to feel it. In Brazil, production is expected to decrease by 1.5%, while in the European Union the expected reduction is 0.5%, according to the bank. For the US, the projection is for a 1.3% increase.
"Challenges in production, processing, marketing and consumption can together reshape the industry, with expected changes in access to labour, increased automation, product mix and distribution channels in the coming years", says the report. Rabobank recalls that a new outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing in June led China to restrict the import of some processing units and to more rigorously inspect imported food. The bank also notes that domestic prices in China have skyrocketed, reflecting the lower supply of animals. "Prices are expected to remain high, in view of the slowdown in imports and the increase in swine fever outbreaks due to heavy rains and flooding," says the bank, adding that the recovery in consumption will also help boost prices.
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