AHDB: How much beef does the UK import from South America
As the world’s largest exporter of beef, Brazil is a key player on the global beef market.
Strong demand for product globally coupled with a devalued Brazilian real means that Brazil is well placed to fulfil this global demand, with exports forecast to be very high again as we move through 2025.
Forecasts for Brazilian beef output for the year ahead are more mixed. However, the consensus seems to be that production peaked in 2024, with future declines expected.
Some forecasts suggest that Brazil will enter the retention phase of their cattle cycle in the latter half of 2025, leading to a year on year easing of total production volume. However, robust market signals and poor pasture conditions domestically appear to be delaying retention currently.
Nevertheless, it is expected that exports will grow again in 2025, driven by strong global demand delivering high value, with any reductions in production likely affecting availability for the domestic market in Brazil.
Argentine
Total cattle slaughter in Argentine is forecast to be down by 4% in 2025, according to the USDA. This is expected to lead to a 3% year on year drop in production to 3.1 million tonnes.
Consistent export demand and dry conditions in the second half of 2024 increased slaughter beyond expectations, reducing supplies for 2025.
This, coupled with challenges with profitability and longer-term herd declines, have contributed to the forecasted contractions for 2025.
Uruguay
Beef production in Uruguay is forecast at 595,000 tonnes in 2025, flat on the year previous. The USDA expect that this will lead to exports at a similar level to 2024, with the US and China remaining the two largest customers.
As the two largest global importers of beef, it is not surprising that China and the USA are the key customers for all South American beef exports.
For the year to date (Jan-Apr), Brazil has exported 875,000 tonnes of beef (incl. fresh/frozen, processed and offal), with 44% of this destined for China and a further 15% to the USA.
Exports have grown strongly to nearly all destinations (particularly the USA), reflecting the strong global demand for beef and Brazil’s ability to supply this.
If we look at Argentine, Jan-Apr exports totalled 217,600 tonnes, with 60% of this product allocated to China, their largest market by a significant margin.
While the volumes sent to China have fallen on the year, for this period, we have seen significant increases in product destined for the US.
Uruguay has also increased exports to the USA significantly in the year to date, totalling 48,000 tonnes. Volumes to China have also fallen on the same period of last year.
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