Aussie sheep flock to grow by 5%
After two years o decline in the national ovine inventory, leading to historically low levels last year, Australia seems ready to rebuild the flock. Improved weather conditions in eastern Australia is supporting farmers to increase production, according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2021 Sheep Industry Projections.
The national flock is now projected to increase 5% to reach 67.3 million head by 30 June 2021.
In contrast to the eastern states, Western Australia is in a de-stocking phase due to drier conditions throughout 2020, which have limited available pasture and surface water. As a result, it is estimated that two million sheep were transported from Western Australia to eastern Australia last year.
MLA Market Information Manager, Stephen Bignell, said this year’s flock rebuild would not be as pronounced as previous La Niña-induced flock rebuilds in 2010 and 2016.
“Factors contributing to the slower predicted pace of the 2021 rebuild include starting from the lowest flock size in over 100 years, and the impact of the 2019 drought, which was the worst on record for some regions and prompted many producers to completely de-stock,” Mr Bignell said.
Mr Bignell said provided favourable seasonal conditions continue this year, strong sheep and lamb prices are expected to remain, with smaller yardings also expected to persist.
“Supply is expected to remain tight as producers retain their core breeding stock and ewe lambs, consistent with a significant flock rebuild. The rebuild will also see producers retain older ewes than usual and many enter the market to purchase additional ewes,” he added.
On the back of improved eastern conditions, national lamb carcase weights are expected to rise 2% to average 24.4kg/head in 2021, up from 24kg in 2020. Continued growth in lamb carcase weights and the forecast rise in slaughter numbers underpin a 6% increase in lamb production to 508,000 tonnes carcase weight (cwt) in 2021. Also, Sheep slaughter is expected to rise slightly in 2021, up 2% to 6.6 million head.
However, for the companies that are exporting sheepmeat to Europe split quota between the UK and EU is raising questions about the volumes that will be absorbed in each of these markets as the free movement of products is no longer in place. From 1 January 2021, Australia’s access to the EU and UK markets is as follows:
- Australia’s previous 7,150 tonnes EU Hilton beef quota has been split: 3,389 tonnes to the EU and 3,761 tonnes to the UK
- Australia’s 19,186 tonnes sheepmeat/goatmeat quota has been split: 5,851 tonnes to the EU and 13,335 tonnes to the UK.
As a consequence, Australian exporters now have to navigate several quota regimes – an unfortunate Brexit outcome. The ultimate ‘fix’ to improving this outcome will be via the two separate but parallel Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) Australia is negotiating with both the EU and UK.
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