Australia's sheep flock to decrease by 6.8%
The Australian sheep inventory is expected to fall sharply by 6.8% to 65.8 million head, marking the largest year-on-year decline in the last 11 years, according to a report issued by Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
Meat and Livestock Australia’s market intelligence manager Scott Tolmie said the contraction was being driven by ongoing drought in all key sheep production regions.
“Heightened sheep slaughter, lower than expected lambing rates and an unfavorable weather outlook is expected to see the national flock fall,” he explained.
According to him, the lamb production is to drop by 7% to 477,000 tonnes carcass weight and mutton production is expected to fall by 12% at 199,000 tonnes.
Limited lamb supply is expected to cause a strong upside for lamb prices, and is also expected to result in strong upside for sheep and goat prices, according to Rabobank analysts.
A similar situation is recorded in New Zealand, where lamb kill for the 2018-19 season was down 3% year-on-year, as of April 27. Beef + Lamb New Zealand forecast the total slaughter numbers for the 2018-19 season to be down 3%.
Farmgate prices for lamb is expected to rise as the demand outlook from New Zealand's key export markets remained positive, with China and the United States leading the way. In the last 5 months, China remained the driving influencer on global prices with strong demand on the back of a growing protein shortage.
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