Belgium: Fewer pig farms by 2030 according to a recent survey
Smaller farms, in particular, are dropping out. This will result in a decrease in greenhouse gas and nitrogen emissions. This is evident from a new forecast by the Agency for Agriculture and Fisheries, based on a survey of livestock farmers from the Agricultural Monitoring Network.
The Agency for Agriculture and Fisheries organized this survey to estimate the extent to which the natural attrition of livestock farmers will contribute to achieving nitrogen and climate targets. We see that the average age of Flemish farmers is increasing, and farm managers often have no successors.
More than a third of the pig farms surveyed say they will no longer keep pigs by 2030. The decline in the number of pigs in Flanders is proportionally smaller, because it is primarily smaller farms that want to stop. Depending on the calculation method, the expected number of pigs is 16 to 23% lower than in 2024. The decline in the number of pigs will also lead to a decrease in methane and nitrous oxide emissions of 16 to 23%. The decrease in ammonia emissions is even larger, because primarily farms without low-ammonia barns will stop keeping pigs.
The number of cattle farms and the number of cattle will also decrease, but this trend is less pronounced. In the survey, 20% of dairy farms indicated they intend to stop keeping dairy cows by 2030. For beef farms, this figure is approximately 25%. Again, it is primarily smaller farms that plan to stop. On the other hand, a quarter of dairy farms see their number of animals on their farm increase. As a result, the dairy herd will decrease by only 6%. For the beef herd, this is closer to 10% to 15%, depending on the calculation method used. The expected decline in the overall cattle herd is 7% to 9.4%.
The decline in cattle numbers translates into a 7 to 9.6% decrease in nitrous oxide emissions. The decrease in methane and ammonia emissions due to the decline in cattle numbers is proportionally smaller, because the share of dairy cattle in the total cattle population is increasing. The expected decrease in enteric emissions is 6.5 to 8.3%, and that of total methane emissions is 6.4 to 8.1%. The expected decrease in ammonia emissions is 6.5 to 8.4%.
The emission reductions calculated in this study are solely the result of a reduction in the number of animals. Farmers can, of course, also take measures to reduce emissions per animal.
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