EU Commission expects stabilization of European pork production
The EU Commission is forecasting a similar production volume for the coming year 2025 (-0.2% compared to 2024). After the sharp declines in the two previous years, this would mean a stabilization of European pork production.
According to EU experts, per capita consumption of pork should level off at around 30.9 kg both this year and next year. This would also result in a stabilization in consumption compared to the past two years.
When it comes to pork exports to third countries, the EU Commission expects that the strong downward trend of the past three years can at least be weakened. Nevertheless, by the end of this year, the volume of pork exported could be down 2.5% to 2.93 million tonnes. A further moderate decline of 2.0% to 2.87 million tonnes is forecast for 2025. In the first half of the current year, export business was challenging because European exporters were only competitive to a limited extent. The price level in the EU was significantly higher than in the USA or Brazil, for example. Since the price gap is currently narrowing, the Brussels experts expect better opportunities for European exporters in the second half of the current year and next year. However, the EU's trade conflict with China should also be taken into account, which could lead to a decline in trade volume if punitive tariffs are imposed on pork.
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