EU pork exports to increase 10% over last year
Pork exports from the EU will increase by 10% until the end of the year, according to the latest outlook from the European Commission. However, production will not follow the same pace, the increase predicted being of just 0.5% compared with 2019 results. "Prospects of strong export demand, predominantly to China, remains a key driver of the European market. EU consumption of pig meat is expected to fall below 30kg per capita in 2020, due to reduced consumption during quarantine periods, particularly for the foodservice sector," commented Felicity Rusk, livestock analyst for AHDB.
EU pig meat exports are expected to continue showing strong growth this year, supported by robust demand from China. Coronavirus has only slowed down the Chinese attempts at herd-rebuilding after ASF decimated the nation’s herd and so production is expected to fall by up to 20% this year. As such, the protein deficit from the nation is larger than originally anticipated which should support import demand from the nation.
EU pig meat exports have already benefitted from this strong Chinese demand, recording a 150% increase in the first four months of the year. However, compared with the end of last year, China has also been increasing supplies from the US, Brazil and Canada, increasing their market share at the detriment of the EU. Looking ahead, this will be a key watchpoint, particularly as the US moves to capture more of the Chinese market.
Recently, global meat exports to China have also faced disruption due to coronavirus outbreaks amongst staff in processing plants. Some plants have suspended shipments to China because of this, with the Netherlands and Germany particularly affected. It remains unclear how and when this situation will be resolved. If prolonged, it could ultimately challenge the EU commission’s positive export outlook.
Nevertheless, several risks, including a second wave of coronavirus in either Europe or China, could cause further disruption to the market.
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