Europe

Harsh prediction: Germany will be hit by ASF in a few years

Hygiene & Biosecurity

A computer simulation on the way the virus is spreading to Eastern and Central Europe sees the disease entering Germany in 4 years.

Posted on Jun 20 ,15:04

Harsh prediction: Germany will be hit by ASF in a few years

African Swine Fever (ASF) threat is far from being over and could be one of the biggest hurdle for EU's pork industry, as a prediction based on a computer simulation presented at International Pig Veterinary Society (IPVS) Congress, held in Chongqing, China, 11-14 June showed that the disease could spread in 4 years to Germany.
The prognosis was presented by the Polish researcher Andrzej Jarynowski of the Interdisciplinary Research Institute in Wroclaw, Poland, who has worked along with his team to elaborate a chart for ASF evolution on the continent based on older outbreaks. "Even if the epidemiological situation in previously affected regions could stabilise in the near future, the propagation will continue", said Jarynowski, quoted by Pig Progress.
In his opinion, ASF will hit Germany in the next 4 years through the wild boar population or through migrating farm workers that are looking for a better-paid job further in Western countries, unintentionally spreading the disease.
Germany is one of the biggest pig producers in EU and the disease could represent a real threat to the country's pork industry if not contained.
For now, Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Poland are the countries worst affected by ASF but there were cases reported also in Latvia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and the Republic of Moldova.

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