Meat consumption in the EU to decline
Sustainability is expected to play a big role in meat consumption in the EU market over the next 10 years. The latest outlook presented by the European Commission foresees a decline of 1.1 kg in meat consumption over the next decade. By the end of 2030, the average per capita consumption will be set at 67.6 kg, according to the report.
However, some of the products included in the animal protein range will perform better than others. Concerns for the environment, the risk of ASF and changes in consumer preferences may limit the production of pork in the EU. Strong international demand and high prices have reduced domestic consumption recently, setting a medium-term trend. Regarding exports, the EU should remain the dominant supplier, but the record levels of 2019-2020 are not expected to recover.
Following the decline in the EU livestock herd, beef production is also expected to continue to decline, despite subdued export prospects and a slight decline in feed prices. The consumption of beef in the EU will decrease by 0.9 kg per capita, but export opportunities could improve in the medium term. Imports could also increase slowly, following the gradual increase in tariff quotas resulting from the entry into force of recent free trade agreements between the EU and certain trading partners.
Sheep and goat meat production and consumption in the EU is expected to remain stable. Live animal exports should decline, while sheep meat imports should remain stable and well below the total volume of tariff quotas opened by the EU.
The demand for poultry meat in the EU is expected to grow steadily, as it is seen by consumers as a healthy and sustainable product. Poultry production is expected to be the only meat category to grow. Exports should continue to benefit from the appreciation of specific boneless cuts, while imports are expected to grow based on the availability of tariff quotas.