Mexican cattle exports plummet 78 percent in 2025 due to sanitary restrictions
Live cattle shipments are projected to decline by 81% in 2025, to approximately 240,000 head, compared to 1.25 million the previous year. The narrow export window for calves-between three and four months-limited their international placement and forced their absorption in the domestic market.
Faced with the suspension, producers redirected animals to domestic feedlots. Small-scale ranchers opted for domestic slaughter to avoid higher costs associated with quarantines, transportation, and veterinary treatments. This reconfiguration impacted the cost structure and logistics of the agricultural export sector.
By 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a 23.8% increase in Mexican beef exports, reaching 390,000 tons. The agency anticipates that sanitary restrictions will limit cattle exports to U.S. feedlots, strengthening Mexico's export supply.
Furthermore, it projects that Mexican beef and veal production will increase by 4.5%, to 2.3 million tons carcass weight. Domestic consumption is expected to grow by 0.2%, to 2.22 million tons, while imports are projected to rise by 6.5%, to 310,000 tons.
In contrast, US beef production is projected to decline by 1% in 2026, affected by reduced availability of steers and heifers and by import restrictions from Mexico. This adjustment reshapes the regional supply balance under the dynamics of trade policy and animal health regulations.
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