Prices for pork in China to remain high
There is a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in China and there have been recent natural disasters, such as flooding in some regions, that are to impact the Chinese meat market in the next following months, says a recent Rabobank outlook. "In this situation, prices of some products, like soy, corn, and pork, will remain high. Recent Covid-19 cases have led to the reimposition of quarantine measures in the affected regions. The recovery of foodservice and institutional consumption will be slower than expected if the virus keeps resurging for the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Consumers will continue to shift their spending to food retail, as they expect a prolonged period of financial uncertainty," explained Ping Chew, Head of RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness - Asia.
In his opinion, pork prices are to remain elevated for the next months due to the impact that flooding in South China provinces is increasing the risk for other ASF outbreaks nad may halt the efforts in repopulating the pig farms. Also, several other voices in the industry are talking about 20 million pigs lost during the floods from a national inventory of 340 million head.
"Hog prices rebounded strongly in July, mainly due to supply shortages, and pork prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in August. Flooding is a big swing factor for herd restocking in the coming months, as it brings higher disease risks. Poultry prices remain weak, and poultry demand will likely improve slightly in 2H, due to the expected recovery in foodservice. Foodservice demand needs more recovery time, and both food delivery growth and online-to-offline integration are accelerating," added Mr Chew in its market outlook.
According to ABPA, China is expected to import more than 4 million tonnes of pork this year due to a shortage in domestic production.
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