Prime sheep prices in Scotland are 5% higher than last year
Prime sheep prices have dipped slightly since the turn of the year, nevertheless, they remain 5% higher than a year ago, according to the latest market analysis by Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).
“However, early sales this week show some modest rebound in farmgate prices. European prices are also showing some firmness, sitting around 2.5% higher than last year,” said Stuart Ashworth, Director of Economics Services.
A decline in the herd by 3-4% is expected to support the farmgate prices as long as other events will not generate volatility in the market. For now, there is a small decline in sheepmeat consumption in the UK, according to the latest Kantar Worldpanel household purchases data.
Latest available export data points towards a small increase in sheepmeat exports during October and November, but trade with France continues to slide and it is growth in trade with Germany and Italy that has more than offset this.
Still, a no-deal Brexit could generate volatility in the market for as long as there is minimal clarity on the next steps for Brexit and, specifically, trade arrangements.
“Although the second quarter of the year (April to June) is usually the quarter with the lowest dependence on exports, they still account for 30% of production. If this trade is disrupted or has to face tariff barriers, prices will inevitably come under pressure,” added Mr Ashworth.
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