Rabobank: Global beef quarterly Q1 2026
The new import quotas announced by China in late 2025 are set to reshape global beef trade flows in 2026 and likely to contribute to ongoing volatility in global beef markets. In our feature article, we take a closer look at the implications of the quota for China and other major beef trade partners.
Global cattle prices continue to track in a positive direction. Even in North America, where prices dipped slightly in late 2025, prices have returned to an upward trend in 2026. Limited supplies are generally the story for Northern Hemisphere markets, with cattle prices in Southern Hemisphere markets gradually being pulled up due to the more limited supplies driving global beef prices higher.
Lower production volumes (compared to the 2021-2025 average) in the US, New Zealand, and Europe continue to pull total beef supplies down. Cattle inventory numbers reported by the US in early February show the beef cow herd at the lowest levels in 75 years. RaboResearch expects production out of the major global suppliers to dip below the five-year average by mid-2026. Exports from Brazil reached record levels in January, supporting demand in Northern Hemisphere markets, but we believe export volumes from Brazil will contract through 2026, and China’s beef import quotas may result in a sharper-than-expected decline in Brazilian production in 2026. Australia is one of the few countries where production volumes remain relatively stable and above the five-year average.
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