Supply squeeze stokes late spring beef price records
Beef price records are being smashed virtually every week as supply tightens, not only in the UK, but across Europe as well- with current trends suggesting the strong prices may continue, according to analysis contained in the latest edition of Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) Market Bulletin.
"Prime cattle deadweight prices in England and Wales have risen dramatically since late 2024 and are now £2 per kg higher than the same period last year", writes Glesni Phillips, HCC’s Intelligence, Analysis & Business Insight Executive. The steer average broke historical records at £5 per kg in September 2024, reached £6 per kg by February 2025, and, given the current trends, is heading towards £7/kg by late spring.
"EU beef prices have recently climbed more rapidly than here, narrowing the typical price gap to around 94.8p/kg for steers as of March, which could enhance UK export competitiveness- although rising prices in Ireland will likely mean higher import prices domestically", reported Glesni.
Market Bulletin reports UK prime cattle throughput for Quarter 1 of 2025 totalled 508,000 head, down three per cent year-on-year (or 14,000 head), with declines across all categories (young bulls -12 per cent; steers -4 per cent and heifers -1 per cent) according to data from Defra. Heifer throughput continues to be elevated compared to historical levels and now represents 43 per cent of total prime throughput (219,100 head), up from 40 per cent in 2022.
"Current prime cattle throughput levels are at their lowest since 2022, which was to be expected as the BCMS cattle population figures did indicate there would be fewer animals available for beef production in the longer term", said Glesni.
Shoppers appear to be still feeling the pinch despite inflation easing as consumer and business costs continue to rise. “Consumer experts Kantar report the total volume of retail beef sold during the twelve weeks to 23 March 2025 was stable on the year -down 0.8 per cent- but an increase in the average price by some five per cent drove a four per cent increase in total spend overall,” said Glesni.
Exports of fresh and frozen beef for January and February were down ten per cent year-on-year at 16,100 tonnes- again probably due to tighter domestic production, which was down three per cent during the period.
"Looking at 2024 as a whole; exports were nine per cent higher than 2023 at 112,500 tonnes, with 86 per cent bound for EU countries. Ireland received the largest proportion of these exports in 2024 but volumes are down some 13 per cent so far in 2025", said Glesni.
"Fresh and frozen beef imports for January and February 2025 decreased 14 per cent to 37,400 tonnes. Volumes from non-EU countries rose 17 per cent, driven by Australia (up 144 per cent), Brazil (up 36 per cent), and New Zealand (up 18 per cent). Imports increased eight per cent to 240,700 tonnes, with Ireland supplying 77 per cent despite a 16 per cent volume reduction", she said.
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