The UK prime cattle slaughter forecast for 2025 has been revised upwards to 2.03 million head
Northern Ireland cattle data revisions
Please note that DAERA (Northern Irish Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs) revised the Northern Irish cattle population figures for 1 December 2023 upwards following an error. This meant the addition of an extra 83K cattle (including cows) at that point in time. This adjusts the forecasts and changes year-on-year comparisons. Annual comparisons must therefore be made with caution. The below forecasts have been updated with the revised figures.
Breeding herd
According to Defra figures (factoring in Northern Irish revisions), the UK cow population stood at just under 3.14 million head at 1 December 2024, 48K head (-1.5%) smaller than the year before. While the overall herd was smaller, differing trends were noted between the suckler and dairy herd.
The national suckler herd contracted by 66K head (-5%) on the year. Meanwhile, the dairy herd showed slight expansion, up 17K head (1%) and ahead of forecast. More granular data has shown expansion in the Northern Irish dairy herd, which has added to a stable herd in Great Britain.
Forward cattle supply
The same census figures showed an annual reduction in the number of cattle aged 0–1 and 1– 2 years old, while there was an increase in the number of non-breeding cattle aged 2 years and over. However, there were more cattle alive aged 1 year+ on 1 December than we had previously forecast.
Cattle slaughter and beef production forecasts
UK production data for the first quarter of the year showed a higher rate of prime cattle slaughter than forecast, with throughput for the quarter totalling 508,000 head. However, numbers were 3% lower compared to the same period a year ago. Cow slaughter for the quarter was in line with forecasts at 150,000 head, 4% lower year-on-year.
Looking forward, factoring together cattle inventory data with year-to-date slaughter had led to a revised 2025 prime cattle forecast of 2.03 million head, down 4% versus 2024. Cow slaughter has been revised marginally downwards to 607,000 head (-2.5% year-on-year).
Average prime cattle carcase weights have been largely in line with expectations. Combining this with slaughter rates has led to a revised 2025 beef production forecast of 897,000 tonnes (-4% versus 2024).
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