USDA projects sharp decline in beef consumption in 2026
According to the report, consumption would fall from 11.644 million tons in 2025 to 11.080 million tons in 2026, a significant drop that marks a break from the expansion observed in previous years. This would be the lowest beef consumption since 2022 and an annual decrease of 564,000 tons.
The main factor behind this contraction is weak consumer spending. Beef remains a price-sensitive protein in the Chinese food basket and faces greater vulnerability to cheaper alternatives like pork and chicken.
In the foodservice channel, especially in mid-range and high-end restaurants, margin compression led during 2025 to the substitution of American and Australian beef with cheaper South American products or directly to the removal of beef dishes from menus.
The USDA office does not expect that trend to reverse in 2026. Something similar is happening in household consumption: high price sensitivity limits the expansion of total volume, since cheaper cuts tend to replace premium ones without generating net growth.
Added to this is the implementation, from January 2026, of a safeguard that introduces a tariff quota scheme (TRQ) by country and an additional 55% out-of-quota tariff, which makes shipments more expensive and reduces purchase incentives.
In this context, the USDA in Beijing projects that imports will fall from 3.658 million tons in 2025 to 3.5 billion tons in 2026. This volume is 250,000 tons lower than the USDA's previous forecast for the current year.
Domestic production is also expected to decline to 7.6 million tons due to the reduced availability of cattle ready for slaughter after several years of herd reduction. However, this lower supply will not offset weak demand, solidifying a scenario of adjustment in the Chinese beef market by 2026.
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