AUSTRALIA

Will Australian producers remain confident in 2025?

In 2023, the livestock market crashed in anticipation of poor seasonal conditions. Market confidence had a direct influence on buying behaviour, severely limiting growth.

Posted on Mar 26 ,00:10

However, in 2024, market confidence combined with strong climate conditions led to prices stabilising and provided a steady base for red meat producers. This demonstrates the significant effect producer confidence has on the livestock market.

Cattle

According to the Beef Producers Intentions Survey November 2024 wave, producer sentiment has rebounded to a more positive outlook, with nett sentiment sitting at 47 points. Here’s a breakdown of the outlook for beef producers for the next 12 months:

• positive outlook – 56%
• neutral outlook – 31%
• negative outlook – 9%.

Improved levels of optimism are shared across most beef producers, with 63% of northern producers and 55% of southern producers (excluding WA producers) having a positive outlook. The rises in sentiment have been driven by improved climate conditions, likely leading to a strong outlook for planning and intentions.

Sheep

Market confidence in 2024 – combined with a limited supply of heavy lambs – meant prices lifted to highs not seen since the 2021 rebuild. Sheep producers took a massive leap, riding off the back of a strong seasonal outlook and commodity prices.

According to the Sheep Producers Intentions Survey October 2024 wave, nett sentiment for the sheepmeat sector sits at 41 points – an 84-point change since 2023. This change demonstrates the impact climate forecast and livestock prices can have on producer confidence.

Sheep producers remain concerned about geopolitical and government policies – especially the threat to live export. These concerns are certainly in the minds of WA producers with nett sentiment in WA sitting at -30 points since the October 2023 wave.

Overall, producer confidence is expected to remain strong throughout 2025 for the livestock market with climate conditions expected to remain average nationally combined with a more productive herd and flock.

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