AHDB: Beef prices rise from farmgate to checkout
Farmgate momentum and the tightening cattle pool
R4L steer values averaged 590p/kg in January 2025, accelerating to a record 713p/kg in the first week of May and closing June at 646/kg. That sequence amounts to an 11% rise in the first half of the year, a 35% jump on June 2024 and a cumulative 91% lift since January 2020.
A significant driver is supply. Prime cattle slaughter from January to June totalled 1.02m head, 3% fewer than a year earlier. Meanwhile, cow throughput fell 5% to 277,000 head as dairy farmers retained cows on firmer milk prices and scarce replacements. With calf registrations still subdued, we now forecast 2025 beef output to total 885,000 tonnes, 4% lower than 2024 and slightly below the last outlook released in May. Tight domestic availability, echoed by shrinking herds in key exporting nations, should keep a firm floor under finished cattle prices. However, extra imports and fragile consumer confidence remain as potential limiting elements.
Retail adjustment and shifting consumer behaviour
On the high street the CPI for beef & veal, recorded by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has climbed 52% from January 2020 to June 2025, while farmgate prices have surged 91% over the same period. In practical terms the gap between the two series, as shown in the graph above, has ballooned from just 0.3 index points at the start of 2020 to 62 index points in April 2025, showing how much faster producer prices have pulled away from shelf prices. Yet in June, this gap has begun to tighten with the difference now sitting at 37 index points as the farmgate price eased and the retail price continued to rise.
The quicker price pass-through is reshaping demand. Worldpanel data shows retail sales for beef 1% lower over the last year to mid-June (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 52 w/e 15 June 2025). While in the latest twelve-week period, volumes were 4% down as shoppers switch away, primarily in to cheaper proteins (Worldpanel by Numerator UK, 12 w/e 15 June 2025).
Foodservice volumes see a similar tilt away from beef, while chicken sees growth (Worldpanel by Numerator UK OOH, 12 w/e 15 June 2025). With cattle numbers expected to tighten further into the fourth quarter and global supplies still constrained, retail prices are unlikely to retreat soon. AHDB therefore anticipates total UK beef volumes in 2025 finishing about 2% below last year, despite stable real wages and modest population growth.
Changing Trade Dynamics
Between January and May 2025, the UK imported 127,500 tonnes of beef, only 1% above the same period in 2024, yet monthly data show imports running about 10% higher from March to May as processors searched overseas for product to offset tight domestic supply and surging farmgate values. Ireland’s share of those volumes slipped from 76% to 70%, allowing competitively priced beef from Brazil, Australia and New Zealand to gain ground.
At the same time, exports have lost momentum. In June, UK beef is 10% more expensive in euro terms than it was in January, undermining sales into core EU markets. Exports for January-May 2025 fell to 51,300 tonnes, down 9% year-on-year, and AHDB expects the full-year total to be 7% lower.
The result is a net trade balance decrease for beef as increased imports outweighed falls in exports which, while still insufficient to reverse the overall supply squeeze, is helping to moderate further spikes in the long-term beef price trajectory and helping to hold the recent peak below the May record.
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