Brazil is taking a step back on poultry exports
Global poultry trade is becoming highly volatile and Brazil is at the centre of this turmoil, considers Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at RaboResearch.
"Global trade has recently become highly volatile, and we have seen some major movements in trade streams and prices due to several important factors", he explained.
Brazil is one the biggest player affected by a series of events that threatens the evolution of its poultry industry. According to the analysis, Brazil’s poultry exports and production are set to decline this year by 10% and 3%, respectively.
Three events on the global market are behind this setback forecast by the analysts:
1. In April, the EU removed 20 Brazilian plants from the export allowance list due to the violation of EU import requirements regarding salmonella control. This is affecting the global breast-meat market heavily, as the EU is the world’s key importer of these products, and other potential buyers like the US are not open to Brazilian poultry imports. Although the EU reduced imports over January-April by only 9%, Brazil’s imports were down 45%.
2. Saudi Arabia is in the process of implementing its new halal allowance standards, which have already led to a drop of 30% in imports in Q1 2018. Saudi Arabia is Brazil’s number-one export market and a key buyer for the whole chicken.
3. China has now issued a special safeguard on imports of Brazilian poultry. This will lead to the implementation of company-specific import levies and will certainly impact import volumes of Brazilian poultry in China.
Nevertheless, this clears the path for other players that can promote their products in these markets. The report noted that Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Thailand and Argentina are already increasing their exports, and this is set to continue in the second half of 2018. The impact will be also reflected by the prices in some markets. "The EU and Mexico are further set to benefit from the recent tensions in trade, with rising local prices", noted the report.
This record is above the numbers that were presented last year, implying a considerable rebound a...