China: Pork production increased in 2025 driven by a rise in slaughtered pigs
The Chinese government is now aiming to reduce output to balance domestic supply. The sow herd is expected to fall to 39 million head in 2026, down from 40.3 million in September 2025. Average slaughter weights are forecast to decline as second-fattening practices are discouraged. Production is expected to slow in the second half of 2026.
Price trends
Average pig prices fell by 15% in 2025 to 14.49 yuan/kg. Prices remained under pressure due to ample supply and weak domestic demand. In early 2026, prices averaged 13.10 yuan/kg, with a temporary rise to 13.43 yuan/kg around Chinese New Year.
Wholesale pork prices rose slightly in January 2026 due to seasonal demand. The weekly national average reached 18.34 yuan/kg for the week ending 9 February, 18% lower year-on-year.
Wholesale pork prices have also witnessed a slight uptick in January this year compared to December 2025 following seasonal demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. According to MARA (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs) data, the national wholesale average stood at 18.34 yuan/kg for the week ending 9 February, around 18% lower compared to the same period last year.
Prices are also lower compared to the average price of 20.2 yuan/kg in 2025. In August 2025, the government launched new pork reserve purchases to aid falling prices.
For the rest of the year, prices are expected to be volatile with lowering production towards the second half of the year on one hand and weak consumer demand on the other. Consumers are shifting from pork towards other animal protein like poultry and seafood for lower cost and better nutrition. Sales is slower than expected in the foodservice and retail segments.
Import trends
In 2025, both pig meat and offal imports fell following three years of rising offal volumes. Total pig meat imports fell by 8% to 1 million tonnes. The EU27 remains the largest supplier, with Spain retaining the lead. Anti-dumping duties continue to influence trade flows.
Offal imports were dominated by the EU27 (52% share). The US share declined to 22% due to tariff disputes. UK shipments increased, giving the UK a 7% share of pig meat imports and a 5% share of offal imports.
Looking specifically at the offal category, the EU27 also continues to dominate Chinese imports volumes with a 52% market share. Though, the US remains the largest exporter, its share of China’s imports declined by 5% to 22% in 2025. This is following the tariff war between US and China. Spain, Canada, the Netherlands and France maintain their market share whilst the market share of Denmark and Chile increase by 1% to 11% and 4% respectively in 2025.
Shipments from the UK to China have increased in volumes year-on-year due to higher production and the imposition of anti-dumping duty on EU pork. In 2025, UK held 7% of the total pigmeat imports to China, an increase of 1% year-on-year. Though the share of UK in total offal exports remains unchanged at 5%, the volume of imports grew by 11% during the period.
Implications for the UK
China remains a key market for the UK pork sector. While Chinese anti-dumping duties on EU pork create opportunities for UK exporters, they also risk displacing EU product into other global markets, potentially increasing competition in Asia.
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