EU pork exports to decline sharply next year
The latest short-term outlook released by the European Commission (EC) predicts a sharp decline in the volumes of pork exported by the EU. Despite the fact that currently, pork exports are on an upward trend, next year there will be a 10% drop in volumes exported to third countries. The development of EU exports will be influenced by how ASF cases are managed in Germany and other nations and whether key trading partners allow trade with ASF-free regions of the country. At this point, the German minister of Agriculture Julia Klockner is discussing the issue of regionalisation with a Japanese mission arrived in Germany and negotiations are underway with China and South Korea for the same matter.
"Berlin must press the principle of regionalisation in talks with China and Korea. The whole of Germany really should not have a long-term export ban. Our goal must be to stabilise prices. A further fall in prices would endanger the entire German pork production, especially in the family-based farms in south Germany," said a spokesman for German meatpacker Mueller Group, according to Reuters.
The average pork price in Germany has dropped by €0.20 in the first two weeks since the ASF virus was confirmed in wild boars.
Until September, Germany had a 14% share in the Chinese pork market. Now, the gap created by a ban imposed by Beijing remains to be filled by other major players such as Brazil, the US, Spain and the Netherlands. China imported 3.29 million tonnes of pork meat in the first nine months of 2020, up 132% year-on-year, according to customs data. However, official data released by Beijing show an increase in pig meat production and experts from different countries are certain that China may ease its pork imports in 2021.
"High pork prices in China have also encouraged importers and consumers to favour other protein supplies," explained Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank.