EU to curb pork exports over the next 15 months
According to the latest report released by the European Commission (EC), EU pork exports are expected to fall sharply for the rest of 2020 and in 2021. ASF in Germany is the trigger for this year as the country has lost access to some important markets in Asia, such as China and South Korea. Nevertheless, for 2021, EC predicts a contraction in Chinese demand as the country rebuilds its own pig herd.
After a 15% increase in the first half of the year, including a doubling of volumes to China, EU pork exports are expected to increase by only 2% in 2020, according to the report, while 2021 will bring a drop of 10% in pork exports. "The evolution of EU exports will depend on Germany's ability to contain the disease. Denmark, Spain and the Netherlands may partially fill supply gaps for the Chinese and Asian markets," says the report.
For this year, the Commission forecast a 0.5% drop this year, compared to the previous forecast for a 0.5% increase. "The ASF outbreak in Germany was expected to slow production recovery in the third quarter when consumer demand rebounded after previous blocking measures to contain the new coronavirus.
"Any increase in production in the fourth quarter should come only from Spain, Denmark and Ireland, which expanded their herds, including breeding sows, in 2019," mentions the report. In 2021, EU pork production is expected to drop by 1%.