Pork shortage foreseen in the Thai market
Thailand is facing a similar scenario seen in Vietnam for the past couple of years. Since May, the county is facing multiple African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks on commercial farms and a massive liquidation is underway. "The price of live pigs at the farm gate in Thailand has reached USD 2.5/kg, up from USD 1.8/kg two months ago. This is signaling that a shortage of pork is looming in months to come. The main reason for the price hike is a mass culling of sows and commercial pigs to prevent the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF). We earlier estimated that 30% of the sows were destroyed or shipped out to neighboring countries, especially Myanmar. But today, the loss of sows could fetch up to 50% or over," believes Paul Anderson, General Manager South East Asia - International Sales Manager, Genesus Inc.
Nevertheless, it will take months for restocking farms as the herd is declining and imports are the only solution for the Thai pig industry. "Healthy gilts in Thailand are hard to find because most of the breeders are also affected, importing will be the solution. Even when the gilts are available, it is very difficult to get a permit to move the gilts to the farms. The movement of pigs is being tightly controlled to avoid the spread of the disease.
The situation in Thailand now is similar to what happened in Vietnam a year ago. Impacts of ASF in Vietnam last year caused a shortage of gilts and pig price hike in the country. Vietnam alleviated this problem by allowing imports of gilts and commercial pigs from Thailand. This is a solution Thailand cannot afford to do. That is why the effect from ASF in Thailand will be much more severe than what Vietnam was facing earlier," added Mr. Anderson.
In his opinion, will take at least a couple of years before the offspring of the young gilt herds reach market weight, until then a shortage of pigs and pork will be inevitable in the country.
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