AHDB: Long-term pork consumption trends to 2033
Global demand projections: Pork consumption is growing
Global demand for pork is projected to rise steadily over the next decade. According to the OECD‑FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024–2033 (produced jointly by the Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development, or OECD, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, or FAO), global pig meat consumption is forecast to grow from around 122 Mt cwe in the base period (2021–2023) to 131 Mt cwe by 2033. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.5%.
The increase in demand is primarily concentrated in developing countries, where population and income growth continue to support higher meat consumption. In contrast, developed countries, including many OECD members, are expected to see flat or declining pork consumption as markets reach maturity and consumer values evolve.
While pork will be the second largest contributor to total meat consumption growth by volume, this trend masks a subtle shift: global per capita consumption of pork is projected to decline by 2% over the period, in retail weight equivalent (rwe) terms. This indicates that population growth, rather than changes in individual dietary behaviour, is driving much of the global volume increase.
Where demand is growing: Developing regions take the lead
Most of the projected growth in pork consumption will occur in developing regions. Asia is expected to account for nearly all of the increase. In particular, Southeast Asia is forecast to see annual growth rates of up to 3.6% in countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand. Urbanisation, rising incomes, and strong culinary preferences for pork are the key drivers.
Latin America is also expected to see notable growth. Per capita pork consumption in the region is projected to rise by 1.3 kg/year rwe by 2033. This is largely due to favourable pricing relative to beef, as pork becomes more accessible to a broader base of consumers.
The OECD-FAO Outlook highlights that India and Southeast Asian countries together will contribute over 30% of global food consumption growth by 2033. While pork is not a major protein source in India, demand is growing in certain urban areas and regional communities.
Stagnation in developed markets: Health and sustainability reshape demand
In high-income regions, including the UK, US, Germany, and Japan, pork consumption is expected to remain flat or decline. This reflects wider concerns about health, environmental impact, and animal welfare. According to the OECD-FAO report, the share of protein from pig meat in high-income countries has fallen by 5 percentage points between 1993 and 2023 and is projected to continue declining through to 2033.
Upper-middle-income countries, such as China, Brazil, and Mexico, have also seen a 6-percentage point drop in pork’s share of total meat protein over the same period. In many of these markets, pork is being displaced by poultry, which is often viewed as a healthier or more affordable option.
This trend suggests that even as total meat consumption grows globally, the composition of that consumption is changing. In high-income countries, plant-based alternatives and poultry are gaining ground, particularly among younger and health-conscious consumers.
Changing demographics: Populations and preferences
By 2033, the global population is projected to reach 8.7 billion, up from around 8 billion in 2023. Most of this growth will occur in low- and middle-income countries. These regions are not only growing in size but also becoming more urbanised and economically active.
As disposable incomes rise, so does the demand for higher-value foods, including pork. The OECD-FAO Outlook emphasises that income growth, rather than price alone, is a key driver in emerging markets. In countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, pork is already a staple, and increased affluence is reinforcing its role in the diet.
Meanwhile, in developed countries, demographic shifts such as ageing populations and increased cultural diversity are influencing food choices. Older consumers may stick with traditional meat-heavy diets, but younger generations are more likely to adopt flexitarian or alternative eating patterns.
Consumer preferences: Health, environment, and ethics
Health and sustainability are becoming more prominent in food purchasing decisions, particularly in high-income countries (OECD/FAO). Gen Z are typically the demographic most concerned about climate change and sustainability. Recognising their influence as the next generation of shoppers, AHDB is engaging younger consumers through reputational campaigns such as This is British pork. But not as you know it, which offers a fresh perspective on familiar favourites and highlights the quality and versatility of home-grown pork.
Consumers are showing a preference for leaner proteins, reduced meat portions, or meat alternatives. Mintel data cited in related OECD work suggests that younger consumers, particularly Generation Z, are highly attuned to both physical and mental well-being, influencing food choices in the long term.
These values are affecting retail and foodservice offerings. Products that carry environmental or welfare certifications tend to command higher price points, appealing to a niche but growing market segment.
Opportunities for trade and exports
For exporting nations such as the UK, the rebalancing of pork demand toward Asia and Latin America represents both a challenge and an opportunity. With limited growth at home, producers will increasingly rely on export markets to maintain scale. Understanding regional consumer preferences, price sensitivities, and market access conditions will be key. Export market access and development are also areas where AHDB invest pork levy funding.
The UK’s reputation for high welfare standards and traceable supply chains positions it well to engage with emerging markets. However, exporters will need to stay agile and responsive to fast-evolving global trends if they are to capture a meaningful share of the growing international pork market.
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